"New START is Dead. The Doomsday Clock is Ticking: Welcome to the New Age of Global Nuclear Disorder!"
A Zoom Conversation Featuring Policy Expert Lynn Rusten ’80 and Stanford Professor Scott Sagan ’77
Moderated by Oberlin Professor of Politics Joshua Freedman
On February 5, 2026, the last remaining bilateral treaty between the United States and Russia limiting strategic nuclear arms expired. Consequently, for the first time in more than 50 years, the two countries possessing 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons will have no mutually agreed constraints on their arsenals and no ongoing dialogue to manage their nuclear relationship.
Not only has the arms control architecture between Russia and the West unraveled, but China is now expanding its nuclear arsenal more quickly than imagined even a few years ago. North Korea’s nuclear and missile arsenals have grown unabated, and there is no current diplomacy to address them. President Trump is threatening military action again Iran whose “threshold” nuclear program continues to advance, while India and Pakistan came close to nuclear blows last year. Proliferation pressures are growing as non-nuclear states watch Ukraine and fear attacks by nuclear states, and allies are increasingly uncertain as to whether they can count on US guarantees for their security. Cyber and AI raise growing risks of unintended or miscalculated use of nuclear weapons. Most dangerous of all at this moment is the seeming complacency of leaders and of the public. No wonder the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to just 85 seconds to midnight.
Please join Professor Joshua Freeman who will draw on the expertise of Lynn Rusten ’80 and Professor Scott Sagan ’77 to consider this new era of nuclear disorder and offer ideas on how to reduce nuclear risks.
MEET THE PANELISTS:
Lynn Rusten ’80 is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), and an independent national security consultant. From 2018-2024, she served as the Vice President for the Global Nuclear Policy Program at the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative where she led efforts to reduce the risk of nuclear weapons use and proliferation. During her career in government, Lynn held senior positions in the Executive branch and on the Hill, covering nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and national security policy. Lynn served as the Senior Director for Arms Control and Nonproliferation at the National Security Council in the Obama administration and held numerous positions in the Department of State. She also was a professional staff member on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Lynn majored in Government at Oberlin, and holds Master’s Degrees from the University of Michigan and the National War College. Read her recently published CEPA article The Start of the End? The End of New START.
Scott D. Sagan ’77 is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. He is the author of many books including Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security; The Limits of Safety; and, with co-author the late Kenneth N. Waltz ’48, The Spread of Nuclear-Weapons: An Enduring Debate. In 2017, Scott received the International Studies Association’s Susan Strange Award which recognizes the scholar whose “singular intellect, assertiveness, and insight most challenge conventional wisdom and intellectual and organizational complacency” in the international studies community. In 2015, he was the recipient of the National Academy of Sciences’ Estes Award for his work addressing the risks of nuclear weapons and the causes of nuclear proliferation. Scott majored in Government and Economics at Oberlin and earned his PhD from Harvard.
Joshua Freedman is an Assistant Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He teaches courses on international politics, international security, and international law, with advanced seminars on identity in global politics, and technological change and world order. His research explores how recognition, identity, and status shape world politics. His forthcoming book, The Recognition Dilemma (Cornell University Press), examines why conflicts over recognition arise, with a focus on the incentives political elites have for strategic elevation of these conflicts in some moments, while suppressing them in others. Professor Freedman is also conducting research on the construction of international status orders and on the political power of inevitability as a cognitive frame. Professor Freedman earned his BA from the University of Toronto and his PhD from Northwestern University.
